What has been happening?

Not a lot really.

This past week has seen the true onset of summer... clear skies, light winds, temps up to the mid twenties. Really truly gloriously fine!! Since October there have been a succession, unbroken succession of storms and depressions interspersed with showery cold southwester. Just after New Year there were reports of icebergs off the Campbell Islands, something not seen in recent times IN WINTER.

A weekend in Whangamata with very good friends - how can you beat a $2 million beachfront mansion? - with good food, good wine. Resurrected an old and long forgotten skill after a half pissed boast - how to make mint juleps. Not bad seeing the last ones would be over thirty years old by now - if they had survived the gent from Little Rock who thought that my initial "experiments" (I had read the recipe from a book a few days before) were "pretty darned good".

Yes, the return of the "Golden Weather" and the accompanying hiatus of political dormancy is truly a time of joy and celebration.

It will end in a week or so when Brash Donny gives his "annual state of the nation" speech to the Orewa branch of Rotary, go back to this time last year for comment on his first attempt.

Rumour has it that this year's speech will see a call for major legislative measures to be "put to the nation" as a referendum.

Well, at first sight I would have no difficulty with that proposal BUT there is a very fundamental flaw in the idea.

It was shown at first hand and most vividly with the last referendum - that was some five years back and was the apex of political debate on crime, justice and punishment. As I recollect, the question asked was along the lines of "I am in favour of law and order - Yes / No". Not the actual words but that was essentially what it meant. For a starter it effectively killed the electoral referendum as a means of determining the mood of the nation on important matters of social policy. Oh, there have been rumours of a few since including one to banish speed limits on the road (how far did that get before it was hit by a truck?), one to revoke the Treaty of Waitangi (that followed fervent public sentiment for Brash Donny's last speech), yet another attempt to resurrect the abortion debate, and the one that got closest was the Civil Union Bill.

To explain briefly, the law that this process follows requires a petition - not binding on the government - of 250,000 electors calling for the referendum. The petition must state the question to be balloted, hence the ludicrous question that was asked in the last one devised by well meaning lay people with an axe to grind.

What the speculation is, and there are very good grounds for it, that Brash Donny this year is going to call for a referendum on the MMP (Mixed Member Proportional) electoral system that we have at present. The next elections will be the fourth(?) under this system, and the original legislation DID provide for such a question after the third MMP election after ten years (the third election). The government (it might even have been at the end of Bill English's National government) removed the requirement from the law with a minimum of fuss and debate.

The problem behind this is in two parts.

There is a popular feeling that MMP gives far too much power to fringe and minority groups such as the Greens who are part of the support mechanisms for the present Labour government (auntie Helen's mob). As last year, it is Brash Donny's hope to tap this well of public feeling and support especially seeing that it is election year.

The second "problem" is just that - it is election year. Any changes that might arise from a public referendum are not going to apply to the next election. They might to the following one, if the referendum supports a change to the electoral system.

The real problem is that the National Party has languished with public poll support of around 38%, compared with Helen's lot at around 45%. Even more difficult for Donny is the report in yesterday's paper that about 65% of the country think that we are generally "heading in the right direction".

So, it is "brand distinction time".

Watch for Brash Donny to thump the tub with such classic throw-aways as "rule by minority", "erosion of rights", "bad decision making" when the real problem he faces is - NOBODY REALLY WANTS YA, DONNY!!!