Time to ratchet up American paranoia...

... and add to the ol' probligo's worries as well. And, TF, you do not need to "read between the lines" with this story. The only thing puzzling me is how it has missed the right-whinge news feeds in the US. At least until now (19:50 27/4/10 NZST)that is and I have not yet been across to TF's place for a read.

Today's Herald had this article reprinted from Telegraph UK -

Iran and Venezuela have already shown an interest in the Club-K Container Missile System which could allow them to carry out pre-emptive strikes from behind an enemy's missile defences.

Defence experts say the system is designed to be concealed as a standard 40ft shipping container that cannot be identified until it is activated.

Priced at an estimated £10 million, each container is fitted with four cruise anti-ship or land attack missiles. The system represents an affordable "strategic level weapon".

Some experts believe that if Iraq had the Club-K system in 2003 it would have made it impossible for America to invade with any container ship in the Gulf a potential threat.

Club-K is being marketed at the Defence Services Asia exhibition in Malaysia this week.

Novator, the manufacturer, is an advanced missile specialist that would not have marketed the system without Moscow's approval. It has released an emotive marketing film complete with dramatic background music.

It shows Club-K containers stowed on ships, trucks and trains as a neighbouring country prepares to invade with American style military equipment.

The enemy force is wiped out by the cruise missile counter attack.

The ol' probligo is not in any way claiming an ability at prescience. Not one little bit. This is a weapon that was just crying out for development. It would surprise me immensely if such a system was not already an element of the US war machine. The diff obviously being that they would limit sales to one or two good friends - like Israel for example.

So, TF (and any anyone else of like mind), this one does scare the ol' probligo. It is what I have talked of for some years come to fruition.

How to Re(a)d the News - 2

We went north (to Opo) for Easter, to enjoy the last of our summer. Very enjoyable it was too. That was, if you exclude the news...

On Sunday, the SST published this article. It was "speculative" to the extent that the name of one of the suicide bombers in the Moscow metro had not been confirmed.

This later article is bylined 2 April, a fact that might upset some seeing as how that was Good Friday. The News does go on...

When the shooting started Adlan Mutsaev and his friends were in the woods picking garlic. They had arrived in the forest earlier that day, together with a group of neighbours travelling in a battered coach. The plan had been straightforward: stuff their sacks, enjoy the countryside, and then head back home to the Chechen town of Achkoi-Martan.

Without warning, Russian commandos hiding behind a hillock opened fire.Adlan, 16, was with his brother Arbi, 19, and their friends Shamil Kataev, 19, and Movsar Tataev, 19. Shamil and Movsar were both wounded. Adlan was shot in the leg, but managed to hobble into a ditch. He hid. Arbi also attempted to flee, but men in camouflage fatigues caught up with him.

According to the human rights group Memorial, Arbi was forced to drag his two wounded and bleeding friends across the snow. Shamil begged for his life. But the solders were impervious. They placed a blindfold over Arbi's eyes. And then they opened fire: executing Shamil and Movsar on the spot. At least two other garlic pickers suffered the same fate: Ramzan Susaev, 40, and Movsar Dakaev, 17. According to his relatives, Dakaev had pleaded to be allowed on the trip with the others. Wearing a bright green fleece, he took a photo of himself in the woods with his mobile phone. It shows him proudly posing against a craggy backdrop of cliffs and trees covered in snow. A little over 48 hours later his body was discovered.

The misfortune of the four garlic pickers was to have unwittingly strayed into a "counter-insurgency operation" conducted by Russian forces in the densely wooded border between Chechnya and Ingushetia. The soldiers, apparently looking for militant rebels who are waging their own violent campaign against the Russian state, came across the unarmed group, brutally killing them amid the picturesque massif of low hills.

Normally this atrocity on a cold day in February would have raised barely a ripple of attention had it not been for the terrible events in Moscow this week. In a video address on Thursday, Chechnya's chief insurgent leader, Doku Umarov, said Monday's suicide attacks on the Russian capital's metro were in revenge for the killings of the garlic pickers near the Ingush village of Arshaty. He claimed federal security service (FSB) commandos had used knives to mutilate their bodies of the dead boys.

Now I know that this goes completely against the confirmation bias of people who believe that Islam is out for world domination.

Russia's counter-terrorism committee yesterday named the Park Kultury bomber as Dzhanet Abdurakhmanova, saying she was also known as Dzhanet Abdullayeva. Born in 1992, she came from Dagestan. Kommersant newspaper published a photo of her dressed in a black Muslim headscarf holding a pistol. It named the second bomber as 20-year-old Markha Ustarkhanova from Chechnya, describing her as the widow of a militant leader killed last October.

Linked or not, human rights groups say it is undeniable that the brutal actions of Russia's security forces have fuelled the insurgency raging across the North Caucasus region of Russia and the ethnic republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya and Kabardino-Balkaria. This largely invisible war has now reached the Kremlin's doorstep.

"People are abducted. People are killed. There are no guarantees of security," Magomed Mutsolgov, a human rights activist, told the Guardian yesterday, speaking from Nazran, Ingushetia's chief town. Law enforcement and security agencies have committed dozens of summary and arbitrary detentions, acts of torture and cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment, as well as extra-judicial executions, rights groups say.

Typically, armed personnel wearing masks encircle a village or district in a "sweep operation". They force their way into homes, beat residents and damage property. Suspected militants are taken away. Many never return. Others are simply shot, and fake weapons planted on them, rights groups allege, citing interviews with victims and relatives.

According to Mutsolgov, the Kremlin's counter-terrorism methods have proved entirely counter-productive: "Violence produces more violence. It drives people to the militant underground."

The nature of the armed conflict in the North Caucasus has also mutated. From 1994 to 1996 Boris Yeltsin fought a war against mainly secular Chechen separatists who wanted – like the newly independent Georgians over the mountains – their own constitution and state. In 1999-2004 president Vladimir Putin fought a second Chechen war. The aim was to crush Chechen separatism.

Now, however, the Kremlin is battling another kind of enemy. The new generation of insurgents have an explicitly Islamist goal: to create a radical pan-Caucasian emirate with sharia law, a bit like Afghanistan under the Taliban. In February Umarov vowed to "liberate" not only the North Caucasus and Krasnodar Krai but Astrakhan – on the Caspian Sea -and the Volga region as well.

The rebels' tactics have also grown more fanatical. Umarov has seemingly revived the suicide squads used by his assassinated predecessor Shamil Basaev. Last summer a suicide truck bomber blew up Nazran's police station. Another bomber succeeded in ramming the car of Ingushetia's president, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov. Monday's attack in Moscow was the first in the capital for six years.

I wonder.

Can anyone else see the same dots as I? The dots between action by the "infidel" and the increasing number of volunteers for suicide missions.

I wonder.

Will the connections between "action" and "consequence" ever be realised in the measurement of the futility of "conventional warfare" in the war against terrorism.

I know.

I do not have the answers. I would be immensely powerful and probably equally rich if I did.

It does seem to me that a very large part of the success of that "war" will come from the removal of "cause". Those "perceived (by the terrorists) causes" I would guess to include US support for Israel, poverty (watch for that one to become of even greater import), inequalities and inequities, and many more I can not imagine.

Perhaps it is another "quote" that came over the radio on Saturday afternoon -

If consumption per head of population in China were to reach the same levels as in the US at present we would need "another seven planets"

Totally unsupported (to my knowledge) by any scientific fact, but not an unimaginable conclusion to reach. After all, how many truly obese people do you see in China?

How to view the news?

TF Stern has posted a "comparative" of the presentation of the stories about the Moscow terrorist action, and the arrest of "freedom fighters" in Illinois and Michigan. He opens thusly -

A couple of stories this morning give a glimpse of how the news media portray dangerous factions of society. See if you can figure out the bias as the details are brought out.

The article he links is an AP feed on Foxnews (Oh dear how the Right have sold out!!). It starts -

DETROIT -- Nine alleged members of a right-wing Christian militia group that was girding for battle with the Antichrist were charged Monday with plotting to kill a police officer and slaughter scores more by bombing the funeral -- all in hopes of touching off an uprising against the U.S. government.

Seven men and one woman believed to be part of the Michigan-based Hutaree militia were arrested over the weekend in raids in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio. The ninth suspect was arrested Monday night after a search in rural southern Michigan.

TF opens out his critique -

The article went on to name the faction Christian group Hutaree, obviously one of the right wing terrorist groups mentioned recently. I do have a question, exactly what crime was committed or is it now permissible to arrest American citizens for thinking about committing a crime; you know, like in the movie Minority Report with Tom Cruise?

Now that is a fair question. It is one I have asked as well, following the misguided and unjustified raids in the Ureweras.

The news that I read, courtesy of the NZ (Granny) Herald, opened the corresponding article like this -

DETROIT - Nine suspects tied to a Christian militia that was preparing for the Antichrist were charged with conspiring to kill police officers, then kill scores more by attacking a funeral using homemade bombs, federal prosecutors said.

The Michigan-based group, called Hutaree, planned to use the attack on police as a catalyst for a larger uprising against the government, according to newly unsealed court papers.

US Attorney Barbara McQuade said agents moved quickly on the group because its members were planning a violent mission sometime in April.

Members of the group, including its leader, David Brian Stone, also known as "Captain Hutaree," were charged following FBI raids over the weekend on locations in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana.

Seven people were arraigned in Detroit on Monday, and another one of Stone's sons, Joshua, is being sought.

Interestingly, though the article does quote individuals interviewed by AP and is similar in structure to the Fox article, it is actually by-lined to an individual - Corey Williams. Does that make it any more valid?

For my part, I have an element of sympathy with TF's criticism. It is a law-enforcement action which has parallels dangerously close to the Urewera raids. That makes it not a good thing but a bad.

I will watch with interest, TF, and I will be interested to hear when these people appear in Court to face charges. The Urewera seven have been charged, are on bail at present, and with no date as yet set for the formal trial to begin. I hope that American justice is somewhat swifter than ours.

The second article, again from Fox News, TF introduces like this -

The other AP story in today’s headlines, Homicide Bombers Kill 38 on Moscow Subway . That had me wondering, “What kind of folks strap on explosives and detonate themselves with the intent of taking out as many innocent civilians as possible?”

The answer was given; but not exactly in clear and understandable English. The AP preferred to use coded text rather than come right out and say, “Muslim Terrorists”; instead these were “rebels from the restive Caucasus region that includes Chechnya”. I like that “restive region”; sounds like a vacation poster slogan instead of an area of the world infested with Muslim Terrorists who have declared war on infidels where ever they might be.

Just a bit further into the article:

“The head of Russia's main security agency said preliminary investigation places the blame on rebels from the restive Caucasus region that includes Chechnya, where separatists have fought Russian forces since the mid-1990s.”

That really clears things up, “separatists”; well why didn’t you say so? You should hear the music from the Wizard of Oz playing as you enter the Emerald City, the door keeper stroking his mustache as you get a glimpse of the Horse of a Different Color.

His only quote from the story -

“Russian police have killed several Islamic militant leaders in the North Caucasus recently, including one last week in the Kabardino-Balkariya region. The killing of Anzor Astemirov was mourned by contributors to two al-Qaida-affiliated Web sites.”

TF must have read no further because I am sure that he might have found greater value toward the end of the Fox article -

In February, Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov warned in an interview on a rebel-affiliated Website that "the zone of military operations will be extended to the territory of Russia ... the war is coming to their cities."

Umarov also claimed his fighters were responsible for the November bombing of the Nevsky Express passenger train that killed 26 people en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg.

I wonder, unlike him, how he might have written had the FBI failed to take action against the Hutaree. I can not help but wonder had the Hutaree bombed government buildings on a scale compared with the Olkahoma bombing of some years back how he would have viewed the failure of law enforcement to prevent the commission of such a crime. His criticism is more than a bit OTT in my book, but lets look to the Herald's version of the same story -

Two female suicide bombers blew themselves up on Moscow's subway system as it was jam-packed with morning rush-hour passengers, killing at least 35 people and wounding more than 30, the city's mayor and other officials said.

Now I have to leave out at this point any further criticism of TF's conceptions and understanding of events as I am writing about differences in the presentation of the news, not an individual's understanding. Again there are similarities, close ones, between the Fox and Herald articles.

TF concludes -

Maybe it’s just me, being one of those right wing Christians with a concealed handgun permit just waiting for my opportunity to blast away from my easy chair while listening to Rush, Hannity or Beck; but has the news media forgotten how to report evenly and without prejudice or have they refused to do their job since being purchased by the Obama administration?

I guess that the validity of the struggle does not depend upon the oppression and direct impact of war, the strictures against the free conduct of religion. It depends far more on the religion of the insurgents. Because the mid-west arrested are Christian, and fighting against the US government they are the good guys. Because the Tchetchians are Muslim, they must be the bad guys, end of story.

Personally, both presentations of the two events struck me as reasonably, supportably, even-handed and objective. Perhaps that is the problem TF faced. There was not the rabid anti-Muslim invective he was expecting in the article from Russia, nor the warm fuzzy sympathy for right-minded Americans on the other.

There was not the clear reporting and open criticism of events presented Herald and other NZ media following the Urewera stupidity.

Sigh...

On fighting a war...

Out of yesterday's Herald comes a fairly brief summary of the situation in Afghanistan and the prospects for the future of that nation and the military campaign against the Taliban.

"The weakness of state institutions, malign actions of power-brokers, widespread corruption and abuse of power by various officials, and Isaf's [International Security Assistance Force's] own errors, have given Afghans little reason to support their Government," McChrystal argued in a document leaked to Bob Woodward of the Washington Post. He said the consequence had been a "crisis of confidence among Afghans. Further, a perception that our resolve is uncertain makes Afghans reluctant to align with us against the insurgents".

That is extracted from a confidential briefing paper prepared for President Barack Obama by the senior US general in Afghanistan, Stanley McChrystal, in August 2009, eight years into the United States-led invasion of Afghanistan.

"We should honestly admit that our efforts have not led to the expected results. Huge material resources and considerable casualties did not produce a positive end result - stabilisation of military-political situation in the country. The protracted character of the military struggle and the absence of any serious success, which could lead to a breakthrough in the entire strategic situation, led to the formation in the minds of the majority of the population of the mistrust in the abilities of the regime."

"The experience of the past years clearly shows that the Afghan problem cannot be solved by military means only.

"We should decisively reject our illusions and undertake principally new steps, taking into account the lessons of the past, and the real situation in the country."

So the Americans are starting to have doubts?

Far from it, it seems. That second quote was from August 17, 1987. The writer Colonel K. Tsagalov is addressing the newly appointed Soviet Defence Minister, Dmitry Yazov.

Georgia vs Russia.

I was very much in two minds whether to post on the Georgia conflict. I posted a comment on Dave Justus's page in response to this -

I think that the historical analogies are pretty appropriate here. This is an act of aggression from a major power that will probably have a huge effect on the world in years to come.

That, truly, would have been a powerfully predictive statement had it been made say seven years back in relation to a totally different situation. And, Dave, it was not Iraq but Kosova that I was thinking of...

Anyhoos, it seems that Dave's spam filter is far more accurate at trapping comments from the probligo than it is at removing the occasional little pseudo-porn things that get attached to some of his earlier posts. But this is not about Dave, it is about Georgia.

Now for some reason (probably directly linked to Presidential stateents), the American press has gone into full-blooded "Commies under the bed again!!!" mode. There is much noise, smoke and mirrors in the news from there - most are more interested in the Presidential candidates than the actual events themselves.

So, let's take a look a little further afield.

One of the best sources I have found is Der Spiegel. Over the past month they have run a series of stories, starting with a visit by the German Foreign Minister to Georgia in July.

Spiegel proves the following thumbnails -

A brief history...

Since peeling away from Georgia in a 1990-1992 war, South Ossetia has been de facto independent. Russians participated in a mixed peacekeeping force following a ceasefire agreement in 1992. Although under international law the breakaway region of Abkhazia is part of Georgia, it is financially backed by Russia. Most Abkhazians hold Russian passports.

Both in 1992 and 2006 South Ossetians voted for independence from Georgia, but the referenda were not recognized by the international community. President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia has repeatedly announced his intention to bring the renegade region under the control of the central government in Tiflis.

The Russians -

Friction between Russia and Georgia over control of the Caucasus regions has redoubled during past months. Georgia accuses Russia of wanting to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russia is in a difficult position. Moscow warned the West against recognizing Kosovo's declaration of independence earlier this year, saying that similar declarations among former Soviet satellites would result. The Russian argument that South Ossetia has a right to autonomy, however, was never extended to Chechnya. The West recognized Kosovo over Russian protest. Now the Kremlin's revenge may well be to officially acknowledge South Ossetia's independence from Georgia.

The US -

The US takes Georgia's side in the conflict. Americans consider President Mikhail Saakashvili a faithful ally, and US military advisors support him given Georgian participation in the Iraq war. US President Bush has accused Russia of a "disproportionate" response and US Ambassador to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad said Russia was following a "campaign of terror." Russia has rejected the accusations.

The UN -

The UN Security Council could not agree on a position regarding the situation proposed by Russia Friday. The Russian document urged Georgia and South Ossetia to cease fighting immediately. Russia requested the council's Friday emergency meeting. Since then, debate in the Security Council has degenerated into a tit-for-tat between Russia and the United States.

Members did not reach an agreement on the text proposed by Russia. The Security Council nevertheless expressed its alarm over the escalation of the conflict. The Russian proposal requested "immediate cessation of violence" and a return to the negotiating table. Georgia, backed up by the US, viewed the proposal as hemming its opportunity to defend itself. So no agreement was reached.

There is a very interesting interview with Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba including -.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why did the situation suddenly escalate now to the degree it has?

Shamba: After the recognition of Kosovo, the situation intensified and Georgia understands that it is losing South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Further talks will only serve to distance the two republics even further from Georgia. That's why the Georgians themselves have started to aggravate the situation, violating previous agreements and applying constant pressure. That has led to a counter response and the situation has gotten out of control. We actually expected this in Abkhazia, but now it is happening in South Ossetia.

and...

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You're not concerned that Russia is just using Abkhazia as an instrument for its own geopolitical interests?

Shamba: Everyone exploits somebody. Is Georgia not used by the USA? The true battle is between the large international powers. On the one hand, Abkhazia and Georgia are levers in this fight, and on the other, Abkhazia and Georgia also use these powers for their own gain. The exploitation is mutual.

What is apparent out of all of this is that after giving assurances of non-aggression, Georgia (well its politicians anyway) decided that everyone would be watching China and the Olympics so a little side-show of their own should go unnoticed.

Wrong!!

And they have gotten spanked.

To round this off, Spiegel also publish an op-ed from New York Times, written by one William Kristol. He closes on this note...

When the “civilized world” expostulated with Russia about Georgia in 1924, the Soviet regime was still weak. In Germany, Hitler was in jail. Only 16 years later, Britain stood virtually alone against a Nazi-Soviet axis. Is it not true today, as it was in the 1920s and ’30s, that delay and irresolution on the part of the democracies simply invite future threats and graver dangers?

Say what? A Nazi-Soviet Axis? While Hitler was in jail, he was talking with Stalin? At the same time he was preaching the dangers of Socialism he was plotting with Lenin? I think Mr Kristol's view of history has gotten a bit cock-eyed. Perhaps he needs glasses...

Sheesh!!